SE Palmeiras v 
Coritiba FBC
The model’s call
Palmeiras win 67%
Draw 15%
Coritiba win 18%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.7–0.6
Both teams to score 37%
The read
SE Palmeiras are favoured to secure three points at home against Coritiba FBC, with our model assigning a 60% probability to a home win. The advantage stems from Palmeiras' home-ground edge and their superior expected goal output (1.6 vs 0.7), suggesting they should control territory and create the better chances. However, a draw remains plausible at 21%, and Coritiba's away threat cannot be entirely dismissed at 19%—the model's most likely outcome of 1-0 reflects a close contest rather than a dominant display.