Grêmio FBPA v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Grêmio win 45%
Draw 24%
Mirassol win 31%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.1–0.9
Both teams to score 39%
The read
Our model gives Grêmio FBPA a narrow edge in this Brasileirão clash, projecting a 44% home-win probability against Mirassol FC's 29% chance. The home side's advantage is modest but supported by their familiar surroundings and a slight expected-goals advantage (1.1 to 0.8), with the model's most likely outcome being a 1-0 victory. This looks like a tight contest where Grêmio's home ground could prove decisive, though a draw remains a realistic possibility at 28%.