CR Flamengo v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Flamengo win 81%
Draw 8%
Chapecoense win 11%
Likely score 2–0
Expected goals 2.9–0.6
Both teams to score 42%
The read
Our model heavily favours CR Flamengo at home, assigning them an 83% chance of victory against Chapecoense AF. The prediction reflects Flamengo's substantial advantage as hosts, supported by their attacking potential (3.0 expected goals) against a visiting side projected to muster just 0.6. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 underscores the gap in quality and suggests Chapecoense will struggle to create meaningful chances in this Brasileirão matchup.