EC Bahia v 
CA Mineiro
The model’s call
Bahia win 45%
Draw 24%
Mineiro win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.2
Both teams to score 55%
The read
Our model favours EC Bahia to take the points at home, pricing them as narrow favourites with a 47% win probability against CA Mineiro. The home side's advantage is reflected in their expected goals (1.7 vs 1.2), though the model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, suggesting a competitive fixture. Bahia's home-ground effect tips the balance, but CA Mineiro remain genuine contenders with a combined 53% probability of not losing.