CA Paranaense v 
São Paulo FC
The model’s call
Paranaense win 54%
Draw 20%
São Paulo win 26%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.8
Both teams to score 40%
The read
Our model gives CA Paranaense a slight edge at home with a 46% win probability against São Paulo FC. The expected goals tally of 1.2-0.9 suggests a tight, low-scoring encounter, with the hosts' home advantage and recent form providing the marginal difference. However, with a draw at 26% and São Paulo's away win probability at 28%, this remains a competitive fixture with no dominant favourite.