EC Vitória v 
Santos FC
The model’s call
Vitória win 46%
Draw 23%
Santos win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.3
Both teams to score 58%
The read
Our model favours EC Vitória at home with a 50% win probability, though a draw remains a realistic outcome at 22%. The hosts benefit from home advantage and a modest expected goals edge of 1.6 to 1.2, but Santos' away form keeps them competitive with a 27% chance of victory. This looks like a fairly balanced contest where Vitória's home field is the deciding factor.