São Paulo FC v 
Clube do Remo
The model’s call
São Paulo win 52%
Draw 21%
Clube do Remo win 27%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.7–0.8
Both teams to score 47%
The read
Our model gives São Paulo FC a clear edge at home, with a 59% win probability against Clube do Remo. The hosts are favoured by a combination of home advantage and expected goals projection (1.8 to 0.8), suggesting they should control possession and create the better chances. However, the draw and away-win probabilities combined at 42% reflect the inherent volatility of cup football—Remo arrive as underdogs but remain well capable of a result.