Coritiba FBC v 
CR Flamengo
The model’s call
Coritiba win 31%
Draw 25%
Flamengo win 44%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 1.0–1.6
Both teams to score 49%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo in this Brasileirão clash, giving the visitors a 45% win probability against Coritiba FBC's 29%. Flamengo's superior form and attacking threat are reflected in the expected goals forecast of 1.4 for the away side versus 1.0 for the hosts. While the home advantage provides some support for Coritiba, the model suggests Flamengo's quality should prove decisive, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline.