SC Corinthians Paulista v 
Grêmio FBPA
The model’s call
Corinthians win 55%
Draw 20%
Grêmio win 24%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.2–0.6
Both teams to score 32%
The read
Our model favours SC Corinthians Paulista at home, giving them a 46% chance of victory compared to Grêmio FBPA's 25%. The hosts' home advantage and xG differential (1.0-0.6) underpin the prediction, though the draw at 29% reflects the competitive nature of this Brasileirão fixture. A narrow Corinthians win remains the most likely outcome, but Grêmio cannot be discounted in what should be a tight contest.