Chapecoense AF v 
SE Palmeiras
The model’s call
Chapecoense win 17%
Draw 13%
Palmeiras win 70%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.6–2.0
Both teams to score 40%
The read
Our model heavily favours SE Palmeiras in this Brasileirão encounter, giving them a 68% chance of victory against Chapecoense AF. The away side's dominance reflects their superior expected goal difference (2.0 xG versus 0.7), suggesting they should control possession and create clearer chances. Palmeiras' attacking quality shines through despite playing on the road, with the model's most likely outcome a 0-1 away win.