Botafogo FR v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Botafogo win 45%
Draw 23%
Bahia win 32%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 2.0–1.6
Both teams to score 69%
The read
Our model gives Botafogo FR a 49% chance of victory at home, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1. The hosts are favoured despite this being relatively tight, largely due to home advantage and expected goals metrics that suggest Botafogo should create more clear opportunities (2.0 xG) than EC Bahia (1.6 xG). However, a draw (21%) and an away win (30%) remain realistic outcomes, making this a competitive fixture rather than a foregone conclusion.