Santos FC v 
Grêmio FBPA
The model’s call
Santos win 45%
Draw 24%
Grêmio win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.1
Both teams to score 52%
The read
Our model gives Santos FC a marginal edge at home with a 39% win probability, though this fixture is tightly contested. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw (27% probability), with Grêmio FBPA presenting a genuine away threat at 34% win probability. Expected goals of 1.3 to 1.1 suggest a competitive match where home advantage and pitch familiarity provide Santos a slight but genuine edge, though neither side is heavily favoured.