SC Internacional v 
EC Vitória
The model’s call
Internacional win 46%
Draw 23%
Vitória win 30%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.9
Both teams to score 45%
The read
Our model slightly favours SC Internacional at home, giving them a 46% chance to win compared to EC Vitória's 28%, with a 26% probability of a draw. The home advantage appears decisive here, with Internacional's expected goals output (1.3) outpacing Vitória's (0.9), suggesting the hosts should control possession and create the better chances. However, this remains a competitive fixture—the model's most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 win, reflecting that both sides are relatively evenly matched despite Internacional's slight edge.