Fluminense FC v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Fluminense win 51%
Draw 21%
Mirassol win 28%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.9
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model gives Fluminense FC a slight edge at home, with a 49% probability of victory compared to Mirassol FC's 26% chances. The home advantage and expected goal differential (1.4 to 0.9) favour the hosts, though the gap is modest—a draw at 25% suggests this will be a competitive encounter. Fluminense start as narrow favourites, but Mirassol cannot be ruled out in what the model projects as a relatively low-scoring affair.