Chapecoense AF v 
Cruzeiro EC
The model’s call
Chapecoense win 31%
Draw 23%
Cruzeiro win 45%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.2–1.5
Both teams to score 54%
The read
Our model favours Cruzeiro EC in this Brasileirão encounter at Arena Condá, giving the visitors a 47% win probability against Chapecoense AF's 29%. Despite playing away from home, Cruzeiro's superior form and quality edge them ahead in this matchup. The expected goals projection of 1.2–1.5 suggests a competitive, relatively tight contest, with a draw the most probable single outcome at 24%.