EC Bahia v 
Coritiba FBC
The model’s call
Bahia win 44%
Draw 24%
Coritiba win 32%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.7–1.3
Both teams to score 58%
The read
Our model gives EC Bahia a slight edge at home with a 40% win probability, though this is a closely contested matchup. The underlying expected goals (1.5 vs 1.4) suggest evenly matched attacking threat, with Bahia's home advantage providing the marginal difference. However, with a draw at 25% and Coritiba's away win probability at 34%, this fixture remains highly competitive and the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw.