EC Vitória v 
RB Bragantino
The model’s call
Vitória win 35%
Draw 28%
Bragantino win 37%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.0–1.3
Both teams to score 47%
The read
Our model sees this as a closely matched fixture, with EC Vitória slightly favoured at home with a 37% win probability compared to RB Bragantino's 36%. The probabilities suggest a competitive encounter, reflected in the expected goals reading of 1.1–1.1 and a most likely scoreline of 1-1. Home advantage appears to be the marginal edge for Vitória, though the draw remains a realistic outcome at 28%.