Mirassol FC v 
CA Mineiro
The model’s call
Mirassol win 40%
Draw 27%
Mineiro win 33%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.1–0.9
Both teams to score 41%
The read
Our model gives Mirassol FC a narrow edge at home with a 43% win probability, though this remains a competitive fixture. The home advantage and Mirassol's slightly superior expected goals output (1.2 vs 0.9) drive the lean toward the hosts, but CA Mineiro's 30% away win chance reflects their genuine quality. A draw is a realistic outcome at 27%, suggesting a tightly contested match with limited clear-cut chances.