Grêmio FBPA v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Grêmio win 41%
Draw 25%
Bahia win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.3
Both teams to score 53%
The read
Our model gives Grêmio FBPA a slight edge at home with a 44% win probability against EC Bahia, though this remains a competitive matchup. The home advantage factors into the prediction, though the expected goals (1.4 to 1.1) suggest this could be a tight, low-scoring contest. A draw is the most likely single outcome at 25%, reflecting the relatively narrow gap between these sides.