CR Flamengo v 
CA Paranaense
The model’s call
Flamengo win 58%
Draw 19%
Paranaense win 24%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.5–0.8
Both teams to score 42%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo to take all three points against CA Paranaense, with a home win probability of 59%. The Rio side's advantage stems from their home-ground factor combined with their superior expected goal output—the model projects Flamengo to generate 1.6 xG compared to Paranaense's 0.7. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, though draws (21%) and away wins (20%) remain live possibilities in what should be a competitive Brasileirão encounter.