Cruzeiro EC v 
SE Palmeiras
The model’s call
Cruzeiro win 27%
Draw 21%
Palmeiras win 52%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.7–1.4
Both teams to score 39%
The read
Our model favours SE Palmeiras to take the away victory at Cruzeiro EC, assigning them a 49% win probability compared to the home side's 25%. The visitors' advantage is evident in the expected goals metrics (1.4 vs 0.8), suggesting Palmeiras' superior attacking threat and likely better recent form or squad depth. A draw is valued at 26%, making this a competitive fixture, though Palmeiras' away strength and Cruzeiro's relatively limited expected output point towards a narrow Palmeiras win as the most probable outcome.