Coritiba FBC v 
Santos FC
The model’s call
Coritiba win 52%
Draw 20%
Santos win 28%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.7–1.2
Both teams to score 57%
The read
Our model favours Coritiba FBC at home with a 57% win probability, driven by home advantage and their current form. However, the expected goals projection (1.9-1.0) and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 suggest a competitive contest where Santos FC's visiting threat cannot be entirely discounted. With a 23% away-win probability and draw chance at 20%, this is closer than the headline figure implies—Coritiba are slight favourites rather than strong ones.