EC Vitória v 
Fluminense FC
The model’s call
Vitória win 40%
Draw 26%
Fluminense win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.3–1.3
Both teams to score 52%
The read
Our model gives EC Vitória a slight edge at home with a 40% win probability compared to Fluminense FC's 34%, though a draw at 26% remains genuinely competitive. The home advantage is pivotal here, but Fluminense's away form keeps this genuinely open. Expected goals favour Vitória marginally (1.3 to 1.2), suggesting they'll create slightly more but both teams should find chances in a tight encounter.