CR Flamengo v 
Grêmio FBPA
The model’s call
Flamengo win 68%
Draw 14%
Grêmio win 18%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.9–0.6
Both teams to score 40%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo to take the points at home, with a 65% win probability against Grêmio FBPA. The home side's advantage is clear in the expected goals data (1.7 to 0.6), reflecting Flamengo's stronger attacking output and defensive solidity. This disparity in chances suggests a comfortable home victory is the most likely outcome, though Grêmio's 16% win probability reminds us that upsets remain possible in Brazilian football.