Cruzeiro EC v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Cruzeiro win 45%
Draw 23%
Bahia win 32%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.4
Both teams to score 58%
The read
Our model gives Cruzeiro EC a slight edge at home with a 45% win probability, though a draw (23%) and an away victory for EC Bahia (31%) remain realistic outcomes. The home advantage and Cruzeiro's current form support the model's lean toward the hosts, but Bahia's away threat keeps the match competitive. With expected goals around 1.5-1.3, a close, low-scoring contest appears most likely—reflected in the model's 1-1 prediction.