Chapecoense AF v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Chapecoense win 33%
Draw 26%
Mirassol win 42%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.0–1.3
Both teams to score 48%
The read
Our model favors Mirassol FC in this Brasileirão encounter, assigning them a 45% win probability compared to Chapecoense AF's 29%. Despite playing away from home, Mirassol's superior form and underlying metrics give them the edge, though the expected goals range (1.0–1.4) suggests a closely contested, low-scoring affair. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting how evenly matched these sides appear on current data.