CA Paranaense v 
CR Vasco da Gama
The model’s call
Paranaense win 61%
Draw 17%
Vasco da Gama win 22%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.8–0.8
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model favours CA Paranaense to take three points at home, assigning them a 58% win probability against CR Vasco da Gama. The hosts' advantage is built on home-ground familiarity and superior expected goals (1.8 to 0.9), suggesting they should create clearer opportunities. However, Vasco's away win probability of 21% reflects their capacity to frustrate, with a draw also a realistic outcome at 21%.