Coritiba FBC v 
EC Vitória
The model’s call
Coritiba win 51%
Draw 21%
Vitória win 28%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.0
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model gives Coritiba FBC a slight edge at home with a 51% win probability against EC Vitória. The hosts are favoured by a narrow margin, backed by home advantage and the expected-goals data showing Coritiba with a 1.6 to 1.0 advantage in attacking threat. However, this is a tight contest—a draw is predicted in 23% of scenarios, and Vitória's 26% away win probability reflects their genuine chances of an upset.