SC Corinthians Paulista v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Corinthians win 55%
Draw 20%
Mirassol win 24%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.1–0.6
Both teams to score 31%
The read
Our model slightly favors SC Corinthians Paulista in this Brasileirão fixture, giving them a 47% chance of victory compared to Mirassol FC's 25%, with a 28% probability of a draw. Corinthians' home advantage is key here, and the expected goals tally of 1.0-0.6 suggests a tight, low-scoring encounter where the hosts' dominance in play could prove decisive. The most likely outcome according to our model is a narrow 1-0 home win.