RB Bragantino v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Bragantino win 71%
Draw 13%
Chapecoense win 16%
Likely score 2–0
Expected goals 2.1–0.7
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model favours RB Bragantino to secure a comfortable home victory, assigning them a 70% win probability against Chapecoense AF. The hosts' advantage is built on their superior form and home-ground benefit, with an expected goals model of 2.1–0.7 suggesting a convincing attacking display. Chapecoense face an uphill task on the road, with just a 14% chance of pulling off an upset.