EC Bahia v 
São Paulo FC
The model’s call
Bahia win 48%
Draw 22%
São Paulo win 30%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.2
Both teams to score 54%
The read
Our model gives EC Bahia a slight edge in this Brasileirão encounter, assigning them a 41% win probability compared to São Paulo FC's 34%, with a 25% draw chance. The home advantage factors into Bahia's favour, though the expected goals tally of 1.4-1.3 suggests a competitive, closely-contested match. Despite the model's slight preference for the hosts, the probabilities remain relatively tight, indicating this could genuinely go either way.