CA Mineiro v 
Cruzeiro EC
The model’s call
Mineiro win 47%
Draw 23%
Cruzeiro win 30%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–1.0
Both teams to score 47%
The read
Our model gives CA Mineiro a slight edge at home with a 43% win probability, though this is a competitive fixture with Cruzeiro's 31% away chances remaining substantial. The home advantage and recent form favour the hosts, but the expected goals tally of 1.3-1.0 suggests a tight match where neither side is expected to dominate—indeed, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at 26% probability.