CR Vasco da Gama v 
SC Corinthians Paulista
The model’s call
Vasco da Gama win 32%
Draw 26%
Corinthians win 42%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.9–1.1
Both teams to score 40%
The read
SC Corinthians Paulista edge this encounter at São Januário despite playing away from home. Our model gives Corinthians a 38% win probability compared to Vasco da Gama's 33%, reflecting their stronger current form and underlying quality. With expected goals of 0.9–1.1 for Corinthians against Vasco's roughly 0.9, a narrow away victory emerges as the most likely outcome, though a tightly contested match with a draw (29% probability) remains entirely plausible.