Santos FC v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Santos win 41%
Draw 25%
Bahia win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.8–1.6
Both teams to score 66%
The read
Our model rates Santos FC as slight favourites against EC Bahia, backing the home side with a 40% win probability compared to 36% for the visitors. However, this is a closely matched fixture—the 4% margin reflects Santos' home advantage and recent form, but the most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw at 24%. Expected goals (1.7 vs 1.6) suggest a competitive match with limited clear-cut chances for either team.