Mirassol FC v 
São Paulo FC
The model’s call
Mirassol win 43%
Draw 25%
São Paulo win 32%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.0–1.0
Both teams to score 40%
The read
Our model gives Mirassol FC a slight edge in this Brasileirão encounter, with a 38% probability of a home victory compared to 34% for São Paulo FC away. The most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw, reflecting relatively balanced attacking and defensive capabilities—the model expects around one goal per side. Mirassol's home advantage tips the scales in their favour, though this remains a competitive fixture with little separating the teams.