CR Flamengo v 
CA Mineiro
The model’s call
Flamengo win 64%
Draw 16%
Mineiro win 20%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.9–0.7
Both teams to score 42%
The read
Our model strongly favors CR Flamengo in this Brasileirão clash, assigning them a 68% win probability at home. The home advantage is a key factor here, combined with Flamengo's superior expected goals output of 2.0 compared to CA Mineiro's 0.7, suggesting the hosts should dominate possession and create clearer chances. The model's most likely outcome is a 2-0 victory for Flamengo, though CA Mineiro's 15% win probability reminds us that away upsets remain possible in Brazilian football.