Coritiba FBC v 
Grêmio FBPA
The model’s call
Coritiba win 52%
Draw 21%
Grêmio win 27%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.9
Both teams to score 45%
The read
Coritiba FBC edges the model's prediction against visiting Grêmio FBPA, with the home side favoured at 49% to claim victory. The model forecasts a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected goals differential of 1.3 to 0.9 in Coritiba's favour, suggesting marginal control but no dominant display. Home advantage and current form appear to be the differentiating factors here, though Grêmio's away record keeps their chances at a respectable 26%.