Chapecoense AF v 
Fluminense FC
The model’s call
Chapecoense win 29%
Draw 23%
Fluminense win 48%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.1–1.7
Both teams to score 54%
The read
Our model favours Fluminense FC to take the points on the road, giving the visitors a 52% chance of victory compared to Chapecoense AF's 26%. Fluminense's superior form and away-day experience appear decisive here, though the model's expected goals (1.1-1.8) suggest a relatively tight contest. The most likely outcome is a draw, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture despite the clear favourite.