Grêmio FBPA v 
Cruzeiro EC
The model’s call
Grêmio win 41%
Draw 26%
Cruzeiro win 33%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.2–1.0
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model gives Grêmio FBPA a marginal edge at home, assigning them a 43% win probability against Cruzeiro EC. The expected goals suggest a tight contest (1.2-0.9 in Grêmio's favour), with the hosts' home advantage and slightly superior form driving the prediction. However, with a quarter of the probability mass on a draw and nearly a third on an away win, this remains competitive—Cruzeiro will fancy their chances.