Fluminense FC v 
Santos FC
The model’s call
Fluminense win 52%
Draw 21%
Santos win 28%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.8–1.1
Both teams to score 57%
The read
Our model favours Fluminense FC in this Brasileirão encounter, giving them a 56% chance of victory compared to Santos FC's 24%. The home advantage is a key factor, combined with Fluminense's underlying expected goals dominance at 1.9 versus 1.1. However, a draw remains a realistic outcome at 21%, and the narrow goal difference suggests this will be a competitive match despite the hosts' edge.