SC Corinthians Paulista v 
EC Vitória
The model’s call
Corinthians win 55%
Draw 20%
Vitória win 25%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.7
Both teams to score 37%
The read
Our model favours SC Corinthians Paulista to edge out EC Vitória in this Brasileirão clash, giving the home side a 48% chance of victory. The model projects Corinthians to generate 1.1 expected goals compared to Vitória's 0.7, reflecting the hosts' attacking edge and home-ground advantage. While a draw (27%) and away win (25%) remain plausible outcomes, the underlying expected-goals data suggests Corinthians should control the match.