Botafogo FR v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Botafogo win 65%
Draw 15%
Chapecoense win 20%
Likely score 2–1
Expected goals 2.5–1.1
Both teams to score 60%
The read
Our model favours Botafogo FR at home with a 69% win probability against Chapecoense AF. The hosts' advantage is built on strong form and home-ground support, with an expected goals projection of 2.6 compared to Chapecoense's 1.1. The most likely outcome points to a 2-1 Botafogo victory, though Chapecoense retain a 16% chance of an upset.