CA Paranaense v 
SE Palmeiras
The model’s call
Paranaense win 31%
Draw 25%
Palmeiras win 44%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.8–1.0
Both teams to score 35%
The read
SE Palmeiras head to Curitiba as favourites in this Brasileirão clash, with our model giving them a 41% win probability compared to CA Paranaense's 30%. Palmeiras' superior form and firepower—reflected in the 1.1 expected goals advantage—make them the model's pick, though the narrow margins suggest a competitive encounter. The hosts' home advantage keeps their chances alive at 30%, while a draw remains very much on the table at 29%.