São Paulo FC v 
EC Vitória
The model’s call
São Paulo win 47%
Draw 23%
Vitória win 30%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.5–0.9
Both teams to score 46%
The read
Our model slightly favours São Paulo FC at home, assigning them a 49% win probability compared to Vitória's 26%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The Tricolor's advantage stems from home-ground benefit and superior expected goals (1.5 vs 0.9), suggesting they're likely to create more clear-cut chances. However, this remains a competitive matchup—Vitória's defensive organisation could frustrate São Paulo and make for a close contest, with a 1-0 home win marking the model's most likely outcome.