SE Palmeiras v 
SC Corinthians Paulista
The model’s call
Palmeiras win 62%
Draw 18%
Corinthians win 21%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.2–0.5
Both teams to score 28%
The read
Our model gives SE Palmeiras a 57% chance of victory in this Paulista derby, with a draw at 25% and SC Corinthians Paulista's away win at just 18%. The home advantage is a significant factor here, and Palmeiras' superior expected goals (1.2 vs 0.5) suggests they're likely to create more clear-cut chances. The model's most probable outcome is a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts.