CR Flamengo v 
Fluminense FC
The model’s call
Flamengo win 63%
Draw 16%
Fluminense win 21%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.9–0.8
Both teams to score 47%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo to take this Rio de Janeiro derby, backing a home win with 63% probability. Flamengo's advantage is built on home-ground comfort and superior expected output, with the model projecting 1.9 expected goals for the hosts against Fluminense's 0.8. A narrow 1-0 victory is the most likely scoreline, though Fluminense's 18% chances remind us that derby football always carries uncertainty.