Coritiba FBC v 
Botafogo FR
The model’s call
Coritiba win 49%
Draw 21%
Botafogo win 30%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.7–1.3
Both teams to score 61%
The read
Our model gives Coritiba FBC a marginal edge at home with a 50% win probability, compared to Botafogo FR's 28%. The home advantage appears decisive here, though Botafogo remain competitive with nearly a third of the win probability between them. Expected goals of 1.8–1.3 suggest a relatively balanced contest in terms of attacking output, but Coritiba's home-field advantage and current positioning likely tilt the model's assessment in their favour.