Chapecoense AF v 
CA Paranaense
The model’s call
Chapecoense win 26%
Draw 21%
Paranaense win 53%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.8–1.7
Both teams to score 46%
The read
Our model favours CA Paranaense to claim all three points on the road, with an away victory rated at 54% compared to 23% for a Chapecoense AF win. The visitors' advantage stems from superior form and underlying metrics—the expected goals figures (0.9 for the hosts, 1.7 for the away side) suggest CA Paranaense should create the better chances. While a draw remains plausible at 22%, the model's most likely outcome is a narrow 0-1 defeat for the home side.