EC Bahia v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Bahia win 50%
Draw 22%
Mirassol win 28%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.0
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model gives EC Bahia a slight edge in this Brasileirão matchup, with a 47% win probability versus Mirassol FC's 29%, though a draw remains plausible at 24%. Bahia's home advantage and superior expected goals figure (1.5 to 1.1) underpin the prediction, though the close probabilities suggest this will be a competitive affair. The most likely outcome according to the model is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the relatively even balance between these two sides.