EC Vitória v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Vitória win 61%
Draw 17%
Chapecoense win 22%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.9–1.0
Both teams to score 53%
The read
Our model favours EC Vitória to take all three points at home, with a 64% win probability against Chapecoense AF. Vitória's home advantage is a key factor, combined with their superior expected goals output—the model projects them to generate around 2.0 chances versus Chapecoense's 0.9. The most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 home victory, reflecting what should be a controlled performance by the hosts.